Robert Male is the Utah Chapter President of PDMA and a passionate product developer. He has executed product planning and design at GE, Teledyne, Danaher, Standex, and L3 Technologies. Robert is accomplished at leading teams in creatively and collaboratively turning ideas into real products. Data modeling and decision analysis are his complementary avocation. Robert currently leads a team that drives quality and cost effectivity into military communications products.
Move forward in the face of uncertainty by using Monte Carlo Analysis in your Decision-making
In developing innovations in the disruptive space around standard product offerings, often times the data available by which to make important decisions is not precise, consistent, nor independent. This uncertainty drives risk and often time causes hesitation and the expending of valuable resources to make the decisions “more sure.” Many times mathematical models of decisions can be constructed of the decision space. Instead of using finite, precise inputs to drive the model (which are usually assumptions anyway) data inputs can be modeled as a distribution of choices and Monte Carlo analysis can be employed to provide richer decision information. This presentation will utilize development relevant models to demonstrate a Monte Carlo Analysis process that incorporates uncertain inputs. It will show how this can be utilized in a common spreadsheet, and survey a number of spreadsheet add-ins available that can simplify the modeling process. It will give the participant ideas on how to handle data variation to facilitate decision-making.